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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.

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What implied odds mean

How a market price becomes an implied probability — and what it does not promise. · 1 min read

Updated 22 Sept 2026

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On many prediction markets, a Yes share trading near 0.62 (or 62¢) is often read as an implied probability of about 62% that the event resolves Yes — before fees and other frictions.

The simple conversion

  • Price between 0 and 1 → multiply by 100 for a percentage.
  • Yes ≈ 62% implies No ≈ 38% on a binary market (prices can sum slightly off 100% with spreads).
  • Use ChanceWire’s odds comparator for American and decimal equivalents.

What implied odds are not

They are not a promise of accuracy, a forecast from ChanceWire, or advice to trade. They reflect where willing buyers and sellers meet at a moment in time — influenced by liquidity, news flow, and participant mix. Crowds can be wrong; thin books can gap on small size; resolution text still beats the headline.

On our market pages

We show outcome prices and volume from Polymarket’s public API. For more on layout cues, see how to read a market page. SoftCta outbound only — confirm age and eligibility on each venue before you act.

Published 19 September 2026 (Asia/Nicosia). Informational only. Not financial, legal, or tax advice.

FAQ

What do implied odds mean?
On many prediction markets, a Yes share trading near 0.62 (or 62¢) is often read as an implied probability of about 62% that the event resolves Yes — before fees and other frictions.
Is a 62¢ Yes price proof of 62% accuracy?
No. Implied odds are not a promise of accuracy, a ChanceWire forecast, or advice to trade. They reflect where willing buyers and sellers meet at a moment in time.
Where can I convert odds formats?
Use ChanceWire’s odds comparator for American and decimal equivalents when you see other formats. Polymarket outcome prices on our market pages are already close to probabilities.

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