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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.

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What implied odds mean

How a market price becomes an implied probability — and what it doesn’t guarantee. · 3 min read

Updated 19 September 2026 (Asia/Nicosia)

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On many prediction markets, a Yes share trading near 0.62 (or 62¢) is often read as an implied probability of about 62% that the event resolves Yes — before fees and other frictions.

The simple conversion

  • Price between 0 and 1 → multiply by 100 for a percentage.
  • Yes ≈ 62% implies No ≈ 38% on a binary market (prices can sum slightly off 100% with spreads).
  • Use ChanceWire’s odds comparator for American and decimal equivalents.

What implied odds are not

They are not a promise of accuracy, a forecast from ChanceWire, or advice to trade. They reflect where willing buyers and sellers meet at a moment in time — influenced by liquidity, news flow, and participant mix.

On our market pages

We show outcome prices and volume from Polymarket’s public API. For more on layout cues, see how to read a market page.

FAQ

What do implied odds mean?
On many prediction markets, a Yes share trading near 0.62 (or 62¢) is often read as an implied probability of about 62% that the event resolves Yes — before fees and other frictions.
Is a 62¢ Yes price a guarantee of 62% accuracy?
No. Implied odds are not a promise of accuracy, a ChanceWire forecast, or advice to trade. They reflect where willing buyers and sellers meet at a moment in time.
Where can I convert odds formats?
Use ChanceWire’s odds comparator for American and decimal equivalents when you see other formats. Polymarket outcome prices on our market pages are already close to probabilities.