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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyLoading active Polymarket events…
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PolymarketThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: Satoshi’s identity proven in 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Leading: December 31
Market change · 24h
No 24h history yet — we never invent a Δ.
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:33 EEST
Polymarket CLOB returned no price series for this interval — we never invent a chart.
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading: December 31 | 2.1%Lead | — | — | $2.00M $17.2K liq | |
| No match yet | ||||
| No match yet | ||||
| Not listed | ||||
