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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyLoading active Polymarket events…
Ask PolyGuides & compare
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: 18 Years of Satoshi’s Paradox: Can Bitcoin Survive What Comes Next?
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Market change · 24h
-0.3 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:36 EEST
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.9% | 97.2% | -0.3pp | $5.38M $63.8K liq | |
| No match yet | ||||
| No match yet | ||||
| Not listed | ||||
