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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
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PolymarketIf the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: Elon Musk is putting Dogecoin on the moon in 49 days, here is what history says happens next
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Leading: December 31, 2027
Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch · KXGTA6SONGS-30
Market change · 24h
+0.0 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading: December 31, 2027 | 45.5%Lead | — | 0.0pp | $1.18M $91.2K liq | |
| Grand Theft Auto VI: Songs on radio at launch · KXGTA6SONGS-30 | Not listed | ||||
| No match yet | ||||
| Not listed | ||||
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:32 EEST
