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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
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PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: Germany news: Merz visits Korean DMZ, expresses hope for reunification as Asia tour concludes
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Leading: December 31, 2027
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? · KXWARSHOUT-26JUL
Market change · 24h
-0.2 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:35 EEST
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading: December 31, 2027 | 37.5%Lead | — | -0.2pp | $3.08M $242.7K liq | |
| Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? · KXWARSHOUT-26JUL | Not listed | ||||
| No match yet | ||||
| Not listed | ||||
