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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Odds + context





Headline 1 of 6: Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2026: Experts Predict Whether Interest Rates Will Drop
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Leading: ↓ 3.5%
Fed funds rate at end of 2036 · KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01
Market change · 24h
-0.0 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:34 EEST
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.0%Lead | — | -0.0pp | $1.92M $299.5K liq | ||
| Not listed | |||||
| No match yet | |||||
| Not listed | |||||