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PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Odds + context
External headlines · matched to this market
Yes probability over time
Updated 20 Sept, 15:46 EEST
Polymarket CLOB returned no price series for this interval — we never invent a chart.
Same event across venues
Unmatched venues show Not listed — no invented prices
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% | 100.0% | — | $5.45M $75.4K liq | |
 | Not listed | ||||
 | No match yet | ||||
A Russian election and a warning to Europe about Russian aggression
NPR
 | Not listed | ||||