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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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Headline 1 of 6: How Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ is reshaping southern Lebanon
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Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
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Leading: December 31, 2027
Market change · 24h
No 24h history yet — we never invent a Δ.
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:34 EEST
Polymarket CLOB returned no price series for this interval — we never invent a chart.
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5%Lead | — | — | $8.62M $82.3K liq | ||
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