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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
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PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Odds + context
External headlines · matched to this market
Yes probability over time
Updated 20 Sept, 15:45 EEST
Same event across venues
Unmatched venues show Not listed — no invented prices
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | 83.5% | +1.0pp | $67.36M $661.3K liq | |
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‘Chinese Nostradamus’ Makes Grim Predictions for 2027: Ground Invasion of Iran and Civil War in the US
style.news.am
| Not listed |
 Any impeachment articles before 2027? · Any impeachment articles before 2027? | 9.0% | 93.0% | 0.0pp | — — liq |
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