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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
Meet PolyPoly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.
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PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: Why Invading Iran Could Become America's Biggest Military Mistake
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Market change · 24h
-2.0 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:36 EEST
Any impeachment articles before 2027? · Any impeachment articles before 2027?
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5% | 84.5% | -2.0pp | $77.19M $322.9K liq | |
| No match yet | ||||
| Any impeachment articles before 2027? · Any impeachment articles before 2027? | 14.0% | 86.0% | -4.0pp | — — liq | |
| Not listed | ||||
