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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Odds + context
Headline 1 of 6: US oil company holds key to Trump's Greenland drilling ambitions
Where to trade
Polymarket is the live partner CTA (AgeGate + tracked /r). Kalshi and Novig stay SoftCta / Not listed until written deals — we never invent odds.
Compare venues · CTA when AgeGate clears
Polymarket live · others SoftCta / Not listed — no invented prices
Market change · 24h
-0.5 pts
Yes probability vs ~24h ago (Polymarket CLOB)
Yes probability over time
Updated 4 Nov, 18:36 EEST
Trump visits Greenland? · Trump visits Greenland?
| Platform | Yes | No | 24h | Vol / Liq | CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8% | 98.3% | -0.5pp | $35.98M $175.3K liq | ||
| No match yet | |||||
| 7.0% | 93.0% | 0.0pp | — — liq | ||
| Not listed | |||||