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CFTC Commitments of Traders report literacy

The Commitments of Traders report, known as the COT, is a weekly snapshot of who holds positions in US futures and options markets. Traders in commodities, currencies, interest rates and stock indices use it to gauge positioning. Event contract readers may find it useful as context for markets tied to those prices, such as oil or rate decisions. This SoftCta guide explains what the report is and what it is not.

What it measures

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission collects data on large traders' positions from exchanges and clearing firms. Traders above reporting thresholds are classified into categories, and the report aggregates their long, short and spreading positions for each market. It does not show individual traders.

Timing

Positions are measured as of Tuesday, and the CFTC normally publishes the report on Friday afternoon, Eastern Time. That lag means the data are already several days old when released. Holidays push the release later, and during government shutdowns the reports can stop and then be released in catch-up batches. Check the CFTC's published schedule and see our guide on economic release calendars.

The report formats

• Legacy: splits traders into commercial and non-commercial, plus non-reportable positions.
• Disaggregated: for physical commodities, splits into producers and merchants, swap dealers, managed money and other reportables.
• Traders in Financial Futures: for financial contracts, splits into dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds and others.

Futures-only and combined futures and options versions are published. Reading the wrong version is a common error.

Using it as context

COT data can show whether speculative positioning in a market is unusually long or short relative to history. Some analysts treat extreme positioning as a sign that a move could reverse, but evidence is mixed and the relationship is unstable. For event readers, positioning in fed funds futures or crude oil futures may help explain why related event contracts move. Our guides on fed funds futures and commodity futures versus event contracts explain those links.

Limits

• Data are lagged and weekly.
• Category labels are broad; a commercial trader may also speculate.
• Positioning is not the same as intent or forecast.
• Open interest on a venue's own book, covered in our open interest guide, is a different measure.

Event contracts listed on CFTC-regulated venues are subject to CFTC oversight, as explained in our CFTC primer, but whether a particular contract appears in COT data depends on the CFTC's coverage.

A reading habit

When you use COT data, note the as-of Tuesday date, the report format and the category you are reading, and compare with a long history rather than a single week. Pair it with price history in our price chart tool and verify live prices on the venue.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• CFTC Commitments of Traders reports and explanatory notes
• CFTC release schedule
• Exchange open interest data
• CFTC market participant category definitions

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.