Tools · Prediction markets
Break-even win-rate calculator
Enter American, decimal, or probability to see the win rate needed to break even. Vig is ignored first; optional vig % is an ASSUMPTION field you type yourself.
How to use
- Pick American, decimal, or probability input.
- Read break-even win rate % (implied probability, ignore vig).
- Optionally add a vig % ASSUMPTION for an educational adjusted readout — verify your own definition of vig.
EducationalRequired win rate ignores vig by default. Optional vig % is an ASSUMPTION you type — not a baked-in sportsbook or Polymarket fee schedule. SoftCta only.
Odds input
Break-even win rate
- Break-even WR (ignore vig)
- 52.38%
- Implied probability
- 52.38%
Same converter math as the odds comparator. Not live sportsbook or Kalshi/Novig quotes — never invents rates, EPC, or CPA.
Break-even FAQ
- How is break-even win rate calculated?
- It is the implied probability of the odds you entered — the long-run win rate needed to break even ignoring vig. American, decimal, and probability inputs reuse ChanceWire’s educational converter math.
- What does the optional vig field do?
- It is labeled ASSUMPTION. When set, the tool shows an educational adjusted win rate ≈ break-even × (1 + vig%/100). Verify how you define vig — ChanceWire does not bake in sportsbook or Polymarket juice schedules.
- Does this invent sportsbook or Kalshi odds?
- No. You type the odds. Live Polymarket prices live on /markets. Kalshi and Novig stay Not listed. Never invents rates, EPC, or CPA.
- Where can I convert formats without the win-rate framing?
- Use the odds comparator for probability ↔ American ↔ decimal. SoftCta educational only.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Educational SoftCta only. SoftCta /r locks stay unchanged. Not legal, tax, or financial advice.