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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.

Tools · Prediction markets

Implied probability calculator

Convert a contract price (0–1 or cents) into implied probability %, with an optional American/decimal readout. SoftCta educational only — never invents live venue odds.

How to use

  • Enter a fraction (e.g. 0.55) or cents (e.g. 55).
  • Read the implied % — optional American/decimal use the same math as the odds comparator.
  • Share via the soft URL params if you want a literacy example link.
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Implied probability FAQ

Is a contract price the same as a win probability?
A Yes/No contract price is often treated as an implied probability before fees and spread — not a guarantee that the event will happen at that rate. Always read resolution rules on the venue.
Why show American and decimal odds?
Some readers know sportsbook-style American or decimal formats. The optional readout reuses the same educational converter math as ChanceWire’s odds comparator. It is not a live sportsbook or Kalshi/Novig quote.
Can I share a link with my price?
Yes. The tool updates the URL softly with ?p=0.55 (fraction) or ?cents=55 so you can share a literacy example. Shared links are educational scratch values — not live market data.
Does this pull Polymarket or Kalshi live prices?
No. You type the price. Live Polymarket Yes/No prices live on /markets. Kalshi and Novig stay Not listed on ChanceWire until written BD / data license — we never invent those quotes.
Is this financial advice?
No. Educational SoftCta guidance only. SoftCta /r locks stay unchanged. Not legal, tax, or financial advice.