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Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.

Tools · Prediction markets

Odds move primer

How Yes/No contract prices move as probability (¢ / percentage points) — not sports odds. Type ASSUMPTION before/after Yes prices; SoftCta literacy only. No invented SAMPLE book history.

How to use

  • Enter a Yes before and Yes after price (0–1 or ¢) — ASSUMPTION inputs you verify yourself.
  • Read the absolute move in percentage points / ¢, direction, optional relative %, and a near-par No complement ASSUMPTION.
  • Prefer this calculator over fragile live charts when you only need literacy — use price chart for Polymarket history when available.
  • SoftCta next: /movers desk hub (human-approved days when published).
AssumptionBefore/after Yes prices are your ASSUMPTIONS — type numbers you verified, or keep the placeholder example. This is probability literacy (¢ / percentage points), not sports-odds line moves, and not a live chart. ChanceWire never invents SAMPLE book history here.

Yes prices (ASSUMPTION)

Enter 0–1 fractions (e.g. 0.42) or cents 0–100 (e.g. 42). Defaults below are placeholders only.

Move readout (educational)

Yes move
+13.00 pp (+13.00¢)
Direction
Yes probability up
Yes before → after
42.00¢ → 55.00¢
Relative vs before
+30.95%
No complement move Assumption
-13.00 pp
American / decimal (literacy)
+138 → -122
2.381 → 1.818

A +10¢ Yes move is +10 percentage points of implied probability — not “odds went from −150 to −110” sports-line framing. No complement assumes near-par binary (No ≈ 1 − Yes); real books can gap — see Yes/No gap. SoftCta only; Kalshi/Novig Not listed.

Odds move primer FAQ

Is a Yes price move the same as a sports odds move?
No. On prediction markets a Yes contract price is already an implied probability (e.g. 0.55 ≈ 55%). A move from 42¢ to 55¢ is +13 percentage points — not the same framing as a sportsbook line swinging from −150 to −110. This primer stays in probability / ¢ literacy.
Are the before/after numbers live book odds?
No. Fields are labeled ASSUMPTION. Defaults are placeholders only. ChanceWire never invents SAMPLE sportsbook or venue history tables on this page. Live Polymarket Yes/No (when you need them) live on /markets; charts live on /tools/price-chart.
What does the No complement ASSUMPTION mean?
For a near-par binary, No ≈ 1 − Yes, so a Yes up-move implies No down by roughly the same absolute amount. Real books can have Yes+No ≠ 100% — use the Yes/No gap calculator for that literacy. SoftCta math only.
Do you show Kalshi or Novig movers?
No. Kalshi and Novig stay Not listed until written BD / data license. SoftCtaBlock on this page explains that posture. SoftCta /r / AgeGate stay untouched.
Where do live ChanceWire movers go?
SoftCta hub /movers is the desk view when human-approved days publish. This primer is literacy only — calculator/explain UX, not a live movers table or invented SAMPLE series.
Is this financial advice?
No. Educational SoftCta only. SoftCta /r locks stay unchanged. Not legal, tax, or financial advice.