Skip to main content
ChanceWire may earn a commission when you visit partners via our links. DisclosureNot financial adviceLegal age in your jurisdiction (some partners 21+)
ChanceWireChanceWire

Poly Chance: Scan volume first, then open a category. Prices are implied probabilities — not guarantees. Start with the reading guide if this is new.

Tools · Prediction markets

Yes/No gap finder

Enter Yes and No contract prices (0–1 or ¢) to see their sum versus 100%. SoftCta math literacy only — never “guaranteed arb”, “risk-free”, or lock language.

How to use

  • Type Yes and No prices as 0–1 or cents 0–100.
  • Read Yes+No vs 100% and the educational gap (underround / overround / near-par).
  • Manual inputs always work — no API required for this scratchpad.
Math literacyThis shows Yes+No versus 100% as arithmetic only. We never call a gap “guaranteed arb”, “risk-free”, or a lock — fees, spread, fill risk, and resolution rules still apply. Manual inputs work without any API.

Yes / No prices (manual)

Enter 0–1 fractions (e.g. 0.48) or cents 0–100 (e.g. 48). Both sides should use the same unit style.

Gap readout (educational)

Yes (normalized)
48.00¢
No (normalized)
48.00¢
Yes + No
96.00%
Gap vs 100%
+4.00 pp
Literacy posture
Yes+No under 100% (gap)

Positive gap means Yes+No < 100%; negative means overround. Arithmetic literacy only — not an arb lock or risk-free claim. Kalshi/Novig quotes stay Not listed.

Yes/No gap FAQ

Is a Yes+No gap a guaranteed arb?
No. ChanceWire never labels gaps as “guaranteed arb”, “risk-free”, or a lock. Fees, spreads, fill risk, latency, and resolution rules still apply. This page is arithmetic literacy only.
Do I need a Polymarket API connection?
No. Manual Yes and No price inputs always work without an API. Live Polymarket prices (when you want them) live on /markets via Gamma — this tool stays a scratchpad.
What about Kalshi or Novig Yes/No prices?
Kalshi and Novig stay Not listed on ChanceWire until written BD / data license. We never invent those quotes. Type prices you verified yourself if you want a literacy example.
What does underround vs overround mean here?
Underround: Yes+No &lt; 100% (a positive “gap” vs par). Overround: Yes+No &gt; 100% (juice / overround). Near-par: roughly 100%. Literacy posture only — not trading advice.
Is this financial advice?
No. Educational SoftCta only. SoftCta /r locks stay unchanged. Not legal, tax, or financial advice.