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Discharge petition and House floor procedure markets

Discharge petitions are among the few tools that let rank-and-file members of the US House bypass leadership. They are rarely successful, but when one gains momentum, markets appear on whether it will reach 218 signatures, whether the measure will get a floor vote, and whether it will pass. Each of these is a different question. This SoftCta guide explains the procedure.

How the petition works

Under House rules, a discharge petition can be filed once a bill or resolution has been in committee for 30 legislative days. Many petitions target a special rule for considering a bill rather than the bill itself, which lets supporters set the terms of debate. Members sign at the Clerk's desk, and since 1993 the names of signers have been made public, so readers can track the official tally rather than relying on statements of support.

The signature threshold

A petition needs signatures from a majority of the House's membership, which is 218 when all seats are filled. Vacancies lower the number needed, while newly sworn-in members can add signatures. In 2025, a petition seeking release of Epstein investigation files reached its threshold after a newly elected member was sworn in following a delay. Our guide on special elections and vacancies explains how seat changes affect counts.

Members can remove their names before the threshold is reached, so tallies can go down as well as up.

From signatures to a floor vote

Once a petition has enough signatures, it goes on the Discharge Calendar. After seven legislative days, a signer can call up the motion to discharge on the second or fourth Monday of the month when the House is in session. Legislative days are not calendar days, and the House schedule can delay the process by weeks. A contract asking whether a measure gets a vote "by" a date needs careful attention to this calendar; see our guide on deadline markets.

Leadership countermoves

Leaders have options:

• Persuade signers: offering a vote on an alternative bill or other concessions.
• Bring up the bill themselves: sometimes leaders schedule a vote to avoid losing control of the process.
• Change the rules: the Rules Committee can report a rule that "turns off" the petition, but the House must adopt it, which needs a majority.

In some cases leaders have scheduled the vote themselves, making the discharge motion unnecessary. A contract on whether the petition "succeeds" should say whether a vote brought on by leadership counts.

Passage is a separate step

A floor vote is not passage, and House passage is not law. The Senate may not take up the measure, and the filibuster usually requires 60 votes to end debate. For bill passage contracts, see our legislative vote guide. Discharge fights can also strain relations between a Speaker and members, which links to our guide on Speaker elections and motions to vacate.

Reading the tally

Public statements of support are not signatures. Track the official signer list and reliable congressional reporting, and note which members have promised to sign but have not. Convert prices with the implied probability tool and verify live prices on the venue.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• Office of the Clerk of the House discharge petition records
• Rules of the House of Representatives (Rule XV)
• Congressional Record and House floor schedule
• Congressional Research Service reports on discharge procedure

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
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SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
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