Disclosure: ChanceWire may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through certain partner links. SoftCta only until partner tokens allow hard CTAs. Read How we make money and our Affiliate disclosure. Not financial advice. Informational only — not legal, tax, or investment advice. Digital assets and event contracts involve substantial risk of loss.

EIA weekly crude inventory report markets

Every week the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which estimates US inventories of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and other products. Event contracts may ask whether commercial crude inventories rose (a "build") or fell (a "draw"), or whether the change exceeded a stated number of barrels. This guide covers how to read these markets carefully.

Which number settles

The report has many lines. The one most headlines quote is the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories, measured in millions of barrels and excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Other lines — gasoline stocks, distillate stocks, Cushing, Oklahoma storage, refinery utilization, and implied demand — can move in the opposite direction in the same week.

Before reading any quote, confirm:

• The exact line (commercial crude, total including SPR, gasoline, or Cushing).
• Whether the market is about the weekly change or the inventory level.
• The threshold and whether it is inclusive.
• The report week — inventories are measured as of the prior Friday.

Our guide to verifying official settlement sources explains why the venue's named source beats a news summary.

EIA vs API

The American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes its own weekly inventory survey, usually on Tuesday afternoon, the day before EIA. Traders treat API as an early read, and prices sometimes move on it. But API and EIA use different methods and coverage, and their numbers often disagree in size or even direction. Unless the rules say otherwise, an API figure does not settle an EIA-based contract.

Consensus and surprise

Analyst surveys produce a consensus estimate for the weekly change. A market threshold set near consensus is effectively asking about the surprise. Weekly inventory changes are noisy — imports, exports, and refinery runs can swing several million barrels week to week — so be skeptical of confident narratives. Read how consensus estimates differ from event prices.

Holidays and delays

When a federal holiday falls on Monday or another early-week day, EIA usually shifts the release later — often to Thursday. Contracts with a by-date or settlement time need to handle this. Check EIA's release schedule directly rather than assuming the usual Wednesday slot, and see how timezone and as-of rules affect resolution.

Revisions and the monthly data

Weekly figures are estimates. EIA later publishes monthly data that can differ, and weekly numbers can be adjusted in later reports. Most weekly contracts settle on the first publication. If yours does not, the difference matters.

Connecting to price markets

Inventory surprises can move crude oil prices, which feed into commodity bracket markets and eventually gas price averages. But a single weekly build rarely determines a monthly price bracket. OPEC+ decisions, macro data, and geopolitics often dominate — see our OPEC+ production decision guide.

A worked example

API reports a draw on Tuesday evening. A market on whether EIA will show a commercial crude draw jumps from 55 to 70 cents (illustrative — verify live). The careful reader remembers that API and EIA sometimes disagree, checks whether refinery maintenance season might affect the EIA figure, and treats 70% as the crowd's estimate rather than a near-certainty.

Before you act on a price

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source, the threshold, and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities with the implied probability tool and note the gap between them.
• Account for fees and spread — the fee drag tool uses assumptions only, so verify the live schedule on the venue.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it before comparing it with the crowd.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets for consistency; prices on this page are illustrative — verify live cents on the operator.

The bottom line

ChanceWire guides, hubs, and tools are orientation, not order entry. We do not sell picks, invent partner bonuses, or describe any market as a sure thing. Confirm your age, location, and product eligibility on the operator itself — we will never suggest location spoofing or access workarounds. If the definitions are still unclear after reading the rules, watching without trading is a perfectly reasonable outcome. Event contracts carry substantial risk of loss.