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Faithless electors and Electoral College vote count markets

When people talk about a presidential winner, they usually mean the projected Electoral College result from election night. The formal result comes weeks later, when electors cast their votes and Congress counts them. Event contracts sometimes ask whether any elector will break their pledge, or what the final official tally will be. This SoftCta guide explains the process and what to check.

How electors are chosen

Each state appoints electors equal to its number of House members plus two senators, and the District of Columbia has three. Parties nominate slates of electors in advance, and the slate of the winning candidate in a state is appointed. Maine and Nebraska allocate some electors by congressional district, so a single state can split its vote. Our popular vote versus Electoral College guide explains why the tallies diverge.

Binding laws and Chiafalo

Most states require electors to vote for their pledged candidate. In Chiafalo v. Washington in 2020, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld states' power to enforce those pledges. Many states use a uniform approach in which a faithless vote is cancelled and the elector is replaced on the spot. Others impose penalties, and a minority have no binding law. That patchwork means the chance of a counted faithless vote is lower than raw history suggests.

The 2016 precedent

In 2016, seven electors cast faithless votes that were counted, split between both major parties' slates, and several more attempted faithless votes were blocked or replaced. That year is the main modern precedent, and it came during an unusual campaign to persuade electors to switch. In most elections there are none. Readers pricing these markets should treat the base rate carefully; our guide on status quo pricing explains why "nothing happens" outcomes often deserve high probabilities.

The December meeting and the January count

Each state's electors meet on the same day in mid-December. Under the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022, governors must issue certificates of ascertainment by a set deadline, and objections in Congress now require one-fifth of each chamber to be considered. Congress counts the votes in a joint session on January 6, presided over by the vice president, whose role the 2022 law describes as ministerial.

Settlement details

• Counted versus attempted: a cancelled faithless vote may not count under the rules of the contract.
• Source: the congressional count or National Archives records, not media projections.
• Timing: markets on the official tally often stay open until January.
• Split states: electoral votes from Maine and Nebraska can split; check how the tally treats them.

Election-night calls by decision desks are covered in our race calls guide, and the difference between early and final results in our guide to provisional versus final resolution.

A reading habit

Read which event the contract tracks: an attempted faithless vote, a counted one, or a final tally that differs from projections. Convert prices with the implied probability tool and verify live prices on the venue.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• National Archives Electoral College certificates of ascertainment and votes
• State laws binding presidential electors
• Chiafalo v. Washington, 591 U.S. (2020)
• Congressional Record of the joint session counting electoral votes

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.