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Import and export price index markets

Import and export prices rarely make front-page news, but they feed into inflation forecasts, reflect currency moves and sometimes become event contracts in their own right, especially when tariffs or oil shocks are in the headlines. The index has a specific scope that differs from what many readers expect, particularly on tariffs. This SoftCta guide explains what the BLS indexes measure and how to match a contract to the right line.

What the indexes measure

The BLS surveys importers and exporters about prices of goods crossing the US border. Import prices are measured on a basis that excludes duties, so they show what foreign sellers charge rather than what US buyers pay after tariffs. Export prices show what US producers receive from foreign buyers. Both are reported as monthly and twelve-month percent changes, not seasonally adjusted for most headline uses.

Fuel versus nonfuel

Petroleum is a heavy weight in the import index. When crude prices jump, all-imports can rise sharply while nonfuel imports barely move. Agricultural goods play a similar role for export prices. A contract on all imports is partly a disguised oil question; one on nonfuel imports is closer to a question about the dollar and global goods prices.

Tariffs and the dollar

Because duties are excluded, a tariff increase can coincide with falling import prices if foreign exporters cut prices to stay competitive. The dollar exchange rate is another driver: a stronger dollar usually pushes import prices down. Our currency threshold guide covers the exchange rate side, and the trade balance guide covers volumes.

Relationship to PPI and CPI

Import prices are an input to producer and consumer prices but with lags and partial pass-through. A big import price move does not settle a CPI or PPI contract. Our PPI guide explains producer prices, which are measured differently.

Revisions and precision

BLS revises recent months as late survey responses arrive, and it rounds percent changes to one decimal place. If a contract settles on the first print, later revisions do not matter; if it references a value on a later date, they do. Our data revisions guide covers that distinction.

A simple reading habit

Before the release, check how crude oil and the trade-weighted dollar moved during the reference month, because those two inputs explain much of the typical monthly swing. Write a rough range for all imports and for nonfuel imports separately. If a market price implies a large surprise, ask what evidence would justify it beyond a single headline about tariffs.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes news releases and tables.
• BLS release calendar.
• The venue rulebook naming the index, component, period and rounding.

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.