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JOLTS job openings report markets

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures job openings, hires, and separations. It gets attention because job openings are seen as a gauge of labor demand, and quits as a gauge of worker confidence. Event contracts may ask whether openings will exceed a threshold such as a stated number of millions. Here is how to read those markets.

What job openings mean

A job opening in JOLTS is a position that is unfilled on the last business day of the month, for which the employer is actively recruiting and work could start within 30 days. That is a specific definition. It is not the number of job ads online, and it is not the same as private postings indexes that headlines sometimes cite alongside JOLTS.

JOLTS also reports:

• Hires — additions to payroll during the month.
• Quits — voluntary separations, often read as a confidence signal.
• Layoffs and discharges — involuntary separations.

Each line can move independently, so a strong openings print can arrive alongside weak hiring.

The reference-month lag

JOLTS runs behind the monthly Employment Situation report. A release in early October typically reports August data, while the jobs report from the same week covers September. Markets sometimes trade JOLTS as if it were fresh news when it is describing conditions from two months earlier. Our jobs report markets guide covers the payrolls side.

Revisions and response rates

Each JOLTS release revises the prior month, and annual benchmark revisions can reshape the history. The survey has also faced lower response rates in recent years, which can increase the size of revisions. A contract should state whether it settles on the initial estimate. If it does, a later revision does not reopen it — but your mental model of the trend should incorporate the revision. See data revisions and restatements.

Thresholds and rounding

BLS publishes openings in thousands, and headlines round to millions with one or two decimals. A market threshold expressed in millions with one decimal may round a published figure. Check whether the rules use the exact thousands figure or a rounded headline. Our rounding and threshold precision guide explains the edge cases.

Release timing

JOLTS is usually released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, often on the Tuesday of a jobs-report week. Schedules shift with holidays and government shutdowns. A shutdown can delay or cancel releases, which matters for by-date contracts. Check the BLS schedule and our guide to economic release calendars.

Reading the market

When a JOLTS threshold sits near consensus, the price mainly reflects uncertainty about the surprise. Monthly openings can swing by several hundred thousand, partly from sampling noise, so a narrow threshold deserves a wide personal probability range.

A worked example

A market asks whether August job openings exceed 7.5 million, with Yes at 45 cents (illustrative — verify live). Consensus sits at 7.4 million. A reader notes that the prior month was revised down, that monthly changes of 300,000 are common, and that the market's 45% looks reasonable for a coin-flip-adjacent threshold. That reader writes a range of 35–50% rather than a single confident number.

Before you act on a price

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source, the threshold, and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities with the implied probability tool and note the gap between them.
• Account for fees and spread — the fee drag tool uses assumptions only, so verify the live schedule on the venue.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it before comparing it with the crowd.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets for consistency; prices on this page are illustrative — verify live cents on the operator.

The bottom line

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