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Mistrial and hung jury outcome markets

Most attention in a high-profile trial goes to the verdict. But some trials end with no verdict at all. A jury may deadlock, or a judge may declare a mistrial for another reason. Event contracts on convictions, acquittals or trial timelines need rules for that outcome. This SoftCta guide explains how deadlocks and mistrials work and what to check.

Unanimity and deadlock

In US federal criminal trials, and in all state criminal trials since the Supreme Court's 2020 decision in Ramos v. Louisiana, a guilty verdict on a serious charge must be unanimous. Acquittals generally require unanimity too. If jurors cannot agree, the jury is hung on that count. Civil trials and courts in other countries can follow different rules; England and Wales, for example, allow majority verdicts in criminal cases after a minimum deliberation period.

Jury notes and the Allen charge

Deadlock often becomes visible through notes the jury sends to the judge, which are usually read in open court and recorded on the docket. A judge can respond with an Allen charge, an instruction urging jurors to reconsider while not giving up honest convictions. Prices in verdict markets often react to these notes, but a note saying the jury is stuck does not always mean the trial will end in a mistrial. Juries sometimes reach a verdict after such instructions.

Partial verdicts

When a case has several counts, a jury may agree on some and deadlock on others. The judge can accept a partial verdict and declare a mistrial on the remaining counts. A contract on "convicted on any count" settles differently from one on a specific charge.

Types of mistrial

A mistrial can also follow juror misconduct, prejudicial evidence or procedural problems. A mistrial "without prejudice" allows a retrial. A mistrial "with prejudice" bars one, which is rare and typically follows serious prosecutorial misconduct. After a hung jury, prosecutors decide whether to retry, offer a plea or drop the case. Our plea agreement guide covers how cases sometimes resolve after a mistrial.

How verdict contracts treat a mistrial

Rules vary. A by-date conviction contract may resolve No if the trial ends without a verdict. A multi-outcome market may list "mistrial" or "hung jury" as its own outcome. Some contracts void when the event they describe does not happen. Our guide to draw, push and void edge cases explains these patterns, and the jury verdict guide covers the main trial timeline.

Wording checks

• Counts: any count, all counts or a specific charge.
• Mistrial outcome: listed, resolves No, or voids the market.
• Retrial: whether a later retrial can still affect the result before the deadline.
• Source: the docket entry or a named media report.

A reading habit

Before deliberations start, read how the contract handles a mistrial and check the docket for jury notes. Convert prices with the implied probability tool and verify live prices on the venue.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• Court dockets and minute entries for jury notes and verdicts
• Ramos v. Louisiana, 590 U.S. (2020) on unanimity
• Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, including Rule 31 on verdicts and Rule 26.3 on mistrials
• Prosecutor statements on retrial decisions

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.