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Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing survey markets

Each month, two regional Federal Reserve banks publish the earliest read on US factory conditions. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey both arrive before the national ISM index. Event contracts can ask whether the headline will be positive, above a threshold or above the prior month. This SoftCta guide explains how the surveys work and what to check before reacting to a price.

How the surveys are built

Both banks send short questionnaires to a panel of manufacturers in their districts. Firms say whether activity, new orders, shipments, employment, prices and other measures increased, decreased or stayed the same compared with the prior month. Each answer feeds a diffusion index: the percentage reporting an increase minus the percentage reporting a decrease. A reading of +10 means 10 points more firms reported improvement than deterioration.

The two headlines are built slightly differently. The Empire State headline is the general business conditions index. The Philly Fed headline is a separate question on general activity, not an average of its sub-indexes. Both are seasonally adjusted. Our PMI and ISM guide explains how national surveys differ.

Release timing

The Empire State survey is usually released around the 15th of the month and the Philly Fed survey on the third Thursday, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Dates shift for holidays, so check each bank's calendar. Our release calendar guide covers how to track these.

Why they are noisy

Each panel includes perhaps a hundred or two hundred firms, and not every firm responds every month. A small change in responses can swing the headline by 10 or 20 points, and readings can flip sign from one month to the next. That noise is the main reason to keep probability ranges wide. Our sample size guide explains why small samples produce big moves.

Headline versus sub-indexes

Contracts usually settle on the headline, but sub-indexes can tell a different story. New orders often lead activity. Prices paid and prices received are watched for inflation pressure. Six-month-ahead expectations measure sentiment rather than current activity. A market on "prices paid above 30" settles on that sub-index, not on the headline.

Consensus and surprises

Economists publish forecasts for these surveys, but forecast errors are large relative to the series' volatility. A consensus figure is useful context, not a settlement source. Our guide on consensus versus event prices explains the difference.

Wording checks

• Which survey: Empire State or Philly Fed; the headlines are not interchangeable.
• Which index: headline, new orders, prices paid or a forward-looking measure.
• Revisions: seasonal factors are updated annually, which can change past values.
• Ties: the indexes are reported to one decimal place; check how a reading exactly at the threshold settles.

A reading habit

Write down last month's headline, the consensus and the direction of recent sub-indexes before looking at the market. Convert prices with the implied probability tool and verify live prices on the venue.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
• Survey methodology notes and historical data files from both banks
• Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report for comparison

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.