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Rare in-game events: no-hitter and hat trick markets

How SoftCta readers read rare in-game event contracts — how official scoring defines the milestone, why base rates are low, and how postponements, stat corrections and combined efforts are handled. · 3 min read

Updated 23 Oct 2026

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Rare in-game events: no-hitter and hat trick markets

Some of the most memorable moments in sport are rare: a perfect game, a no-hitter, a hat trick, a hole-in-one in a televised round. Event contracts on these moments are simple to describe and surprisingly tricky to settle. Official scorers, league record-keepers and rulebooks define exactly what counts, and those definitions do not always match fan intuition. This SoftCta guide explains the scoring rules and base rates behind common rare-event contracts.

Official definitions

MLB defines a no-hitter as a game of at least nine innings in which a team allows no hits, and a perfect game as one in which no batter reaches base. Both can be affected by scoring decisions on errors. Hockey and soccer hat tricks depend on goals credited by the official scorer, and goal credits can be changed after review. Our stat corrections guide covers how late changes interact with settlement.

Individual versus combined

A contract that asks whether a named pitcher throws a no-hitter will not settle Yes on a combined effort if that pitcher is removed. A contract on any no-hitter in a day may count combined efforts. Read the subject of the contract carefully.

Base rates

No-hitters happen a handful of times in a typical MLB season, spread across thousands of games, so the per-game probability is small. Hat tricks are more common in hockey than in top-level soccer. Our base rates guide explains how to build a reasonable reference class, adjusting for era and rule changes.

Postponements and shortened games

Rain, suspensions and mercy rules can shorten or move games. The postponement rules guide explains how venues treat games that do not finish as scheduled, which matters for rare events that depend on a full game.

Longshot pricing

Rare outcomes tend to attract buyers looking for large payoffs. Our favorite-longshot bias guide explains why small probabilities are often overpriced on many venues, and the player prop guide covers similar player-specific contracts.

Other sports and milestones

Golf holes-in-one, cricket hat tricks, triple-doubles and maximum breaks in snooker each have their own official definitions and record-keepers. Cricket hat tricks, for example, mean three wickets on consecutive deliveries by one bowler, which can span overs or innings. The same habit applies: read the league definition before the price.

A simple reading habit

Before looking at a price, find the league's official definition, note whether the contract names an individual or any player and check how it treats shortened games and stat changes. Then estimate a rough per-game base rate from recent seasons. If the market price is far above that rate, ask what specific information would justify the gap.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

  • MLB Official Baseball Rules and Elias Sports Bureau records.
  • NHL and league scoring records and official game sheets.
  • The venue rulebook defining the milestone, subject and void rules.

Reading the quote step by step

  • Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
  • Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
  • Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
  • Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
  • Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

  • Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
  • Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
  • Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
  • Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
  • Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
  • If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

  • Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
  • Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
  • Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
  • Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.

FAQ

Does a combined no-hitter count?
Under MLB rules, a no-hitter can be pitched by more than one pitcher. Whether a contract counts a combined no-hitter depends on its wording, so check whether it names an individual pitcher or any no-hitter.
What counts as a hat trick?
In soccer and hockey a hat trick is three goals by one player in a single game. Some contracts exclude goals in a penalty shootout or count only regulation and overtime goals.
Do shortened games count?
MLB official rules define when a shortened game is official, and no-hitters in games shorter than nine innings have specific treatment. Contracts should state how they handle shortened or suspended games.
Why do these contracts often look cheap?
Rare events have low base rates. Prices for longshots can still be higher than base rates suggest because of the favorite-longshot bias and the appeal of a big payoff.

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