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Red-teaming and steelmanning your forecast

When you form a view on an event, the easiest evidence to find is the evidence that agrees with you. Red-teaming and steelmanning are two habits that push back on that tendency. Neither requires special tools. Both are useful before you look at a market price, and again before you act on one.

Red-teaming: attack your own estimate

The term comes from security and military planning, where a separate team plays the adversary. Applied to forecasting, it means trying to break your own conclusion. Questions to ask:

• What evidence would I expect to see if I am wrong, and have I looked for it?
• Which of my sources is weakest, and what happens to my estimate if I drop it?
• What assumptions am I making about timing, definitions, or how the rules settle?
• Who has a strong opposing view, and what do they know that I might not?

Red-teaming works best when it is concrete. Write a short paragraph arguing for the opposite outcome as if you had to defend it.

Steelmanning: argue the best version of the other side

A strawman is a weak version of an opposing argument, easy to knock down. A steelman is the strongest version you can construct. If you think a bill will pass at 80%, the steelman for No might cite whip counts, procedural hurdles, or a history of late defections — not just "politics is unpredictable."

If you cannot write a credible steelman, you may not understand the question well enough. Our guide to confirmation bias explains why this is harder than it sounds.

Adversary analysis

Some events involve actors with incentives to mislead or surprise: negotiators, campaigns, companies, governments. Ask what each actor wants, what they can credibly do, and how they might signal one thing while planning another. Public statements are often moves in a game rather than predictions. Pair this with our narrative fallacy guide.

Where premortems fit

A premortem imagines the forecast has already failed and asks why. It is one red-team technique. Our premortem and exit rules guide shows how to pair it with predetermined exit conditions.

Updating honestly

After red-teaming, update in proportion to what you found. A strong opposing argument that you had not considered should move your estimate. A weak one should not. Bayesian updating gives a framework: how much more likely is this new evidence if you are wrong than if you are right?

Using the market as a red team

A market price is, in effect, a large group's estimate. If your number differs sharply from the price, ask what the crowd might know. Sometimes the market is wrong, and sometimes you are missing information. Either way, the gap is a prompt for red-teaming, not a signal to act. See superforecasting habits.

A worked example

You estimate 75% that a central bank cuts rates at its next meeting. The market trades at 55 cents (illustrative — verify live). Red-teaming, you find that two officials gave hawkish speeches you had not read, and the latest inflation print was above consensus. Your steelman for no cut becomes credible. You revise to 60–65% and note what new data would change your view.

Before you act on a price

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source, the threshold, and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities with the implied probability tool and note the gap between them.
• Account for fees and spread — the fee drag tool uses assumptions only, so verify the live schedule on the venue.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it before comparing it with the crowd.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets for consistency; prices on this page are illustrative — verify live cents on the operator.

The bottom line

ChanceWire guides, hubs, and tools are orientation, not order entry. We do not sell picks, invent partner bonuses, or describe any market as a sure thing. Confirm your age, location, and product eligibility on the operator itself — we will never suggest location spoofing or access workarounds. If the definitions are still unclear after reading the rules, watching without trading is a perfectly reasonable outcome. Event contracts carry substantial risk of loss.