Website outage and status page incident markets
How SoftCta readers read contracts on major service outages — what counts as an outage, why status pages and crowd trackers disagree, and how duration is measured. · 4 min read
Updated 21 Oct 2026
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Website outage and status page incident markets
When a large cloud provider, social app or payment service goes down, it can dominate the news for hours. Event contracts sometimes ask whether a named service will have a major outage in a period, or how long one will last. The answer depends on whose record counts and what severity is required. This SoftCta guide explains how outages are recorded and how to read a quote with the definitions in front of you.
Status pages are the provider’s record
Most large services publish a status page that lists components, incident updates and resolution times. Providers decide how to label severity, and labels such as degraded performance, partial outage and major outage are not standardised. A contract that requires a major outage label will not resolve Yes on a degraded performance incident. SoftCta readers copy the source and severity from the rules.
Crowd reports measure something else
Crowd trackers collect user complaints and display spikes. They are fast and useful for awareness, but they can be triggered by an internet provider issue, a regional problem or a single viral post. They are context, not settlement, unless a contract explicitly names them.
Regional versus global
Cloud providers often have incidents in one region or one service. A contract on whether a provider has an outage may require multiple regions or a named product. Our submarine cable outage guide covers how infrastructure failures can affect some countries but not others.
Duration and revisions
Duration contracts depend on start and end timestamps. Providers sometimes post a first update well after users noticed problems, then revise the start time in a post-incident report days later. SoftCta readers check whether the contract uses the live status page or the final report, and in which time zone.
Outages versus security incidents
An outage caused by a cyberattack can also trigger disclosure rules. Our cyber breach disclosure guide explains SEC Form 8-K reporting. Contracts on outages and on breaches are different questions, even when the same event is involved.
A worked example
A contract asks whether a named cloud provider will post a major outage on its status page affecting at least two regions in a month, priced at an illustrative 18 cents Yes. Past records show such incidents a few times a year. The reader uses that base rate to write a range of 12 to 20 percent and converts with the implied probability tool. They verify live cents on the venue. Substantial risk of loss.
Common mistakes
Treating crowd spikes as official outages. Ignoring severity labels. Confusing a regional incident with a global one. Missing revised start times. Assuming every outage is a cyberattack. SoftCta pages avoid sure-thing calls on incidents.
Primary sources SoftCta readers open
SoftCta readers open the provider’s official status page and incident history, its post-incident reports, and any regulatory filings that mention the event. They log the incident identifier, severity label and timestamps with time zones, and keep crowd trackers and social posts in a context column, following official settlement source habits.
Reading the quote step by step
- Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
- Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
- Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
- Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
- Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.
Closing SoftCta checklist
- Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
- Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
- Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
- Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
- Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
- If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.
SoftCta habits
- Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
- Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
- Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
- Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.
FAQ
- Where do official outage records come from?
- Usually the provider’s own status page, where it posts incidents, updates and resolutions, and sometimes a post-incident report published later.
- Are crowd-sourced outage trackers official?
- No. Sites that aggregate user reports can show spikes when people cannot reach a service, but they are not the provider’s record and can reflect local network problems.
- How is outage duration measured?
- Typically from the time the provider marks an incident as started to the time it is marked resolved. Providers sometimes revise start times in later reports.
- Does a partial outage count?
- It depends on the contract. Status pages often label incidents as degraded performance, partial outage or major outage, and rules may count only some of them.