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Western Pacific typhoon season and agency intensity markets

The western North Pacific is the world's most active tropical cyclone basin, and typhoons affecting Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Korea are major news events. Event contracts on typhoon counts, intensity or landfall face a complication that Atlantic markets largely avoid: several agencies track the same storm and can report different numbers. This SoftCta guide explains the differences.

Who tracks the storms

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is the official regional centre for the basin under the World Meteorological Organization. It assigns international names from a list contributed by the fourteen members of the Typhoon Committee, and issues official intensity estimates. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues its own warnings and numbers storms separately. National agencies, including PAGASA in the Philippines, the China Meteorological Administration and the Hong Kong Observatory, issue local warnings, and PAGASA gives its own local names to storms in its area. A single storm can therefore have two names and several sets of intensity figures.

Wind averaging periods

JMA reports 10-minute average sustained winds, while JTWC uses 1-minute averages, as the US National Hurricane Center does. For the same storm, the 1-minute figure is usually noticeably higher. JMA's top category, violent typhoon, starts at a 10-minute threshold, while JTWC's super typhoon label starts at 130 knots on a 1-minute basis. A contract asking whether a storm "becomes a super typhoon" depends on JTWC; one asking about JMA's category depends on a different agency and scale. Our guide on weather verification sources covers the general principle of reading the named source.

Season counts

Count markets need to say whose count is used. JTWC tracks tropical depressions that JMA may never name, and the reverse can happen. The basin averages roughly 25 named storms a year, with large swings; ENSO phases, covered in our El Niño guide, shift where storms form and how intense they become. Our guides on Atlantic counts and accumulated cyclone energy explain related metrics.

Landfall wording

Landfall is when the storm's centre crosses the coastline. Typhoons may cross small islands, skirt a coast without landfall, or make several landfalls. A contract on "landfall in Japan" should say whether outlying islands count and which agency's track is used. Our landfall guide covers these questions in detail.

Best track revisions

After the season, agencies publish best track data that can revise peak intensity. A contract settling on real-time advisories may differ from one settling on the final best track, so check which is named and when settlement happens.

A reading habit

• Identify which agency the contract uses and its wind averaging period.
• Note how names, numbers and category labels are defined.
• Check whether real-time advisories or post-season best track settle the market.
• Compare agency forecasts rather than relying on a single model run.

Convert prices with the implied probability tool and verify live prices on the venue before drawing conclusions.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• Japan Meteorological Agency RSMC Tokyo advisories and best track
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center warnings and best track
• PAGASA tropical cyclone bulletins
• Hong Kong Observatory and China Meteorological Administration warnings

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.