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Bank of Japan Tankan survey markets

Japan's Tankan survey is one of the few business surveys that can move the yen and Japanese equities on its own. Because the Bank of Japan watches it closely before policy meetings, event contracts sometimes ask whether a headline Tankan index will rise, fall or clear a threshold. The survey looks like a single number on a headline ticker, but it contains dozens of series. This SoftCta guide explains what to check before you compare a contract price with a forecast.

What the survey measures

The Tankan, formally the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan, polls roughly nine thousand firms each quarter. Companies answer whether business conditions are favorable, not so favorable, or unfavorable, both for now and for the next quarter. The Bank of Japan converts those answers into diffusion indexes: favorable share minus unfavorable share. It also publishes capital spending plans, employment conditions, output price expectations and firms' inflation outlooks.

Which index the contract names

The large manufacturers index is the famous one, but there are separate indexes for large, medium-sized and small enterprises, each split into manufacturing and non-manufacturing, plus a forecast index for the following quarter. A contract on the Tankan might use any of them. Read the rules for the enterprise size, the sector, and whether it uses the actual or forecast index. A Yes on the forecast index can settle differently from the headline actual on the same morning.

Integer readings and ties

Diffusion indexes are reported in whole points, so thresholds work differently from a percentage with decimals. A contract asking whether the index is above plus 13 will resolve No if the print is exactly plus 13. Ties are common because the scale is coarse. Our rounding guide covers how strict and inclusive inequalities change outcomes.

Sample revisions and survey rounds

The Bank of Japan periodically revises the sample of firms, usually alongside the March survey. When it does, it restates the previous quarter's figures on the new basis. A change from minus 1 to plus 1 might be measured against a restated prior figure rather than the number readers remember. Contracts that ask whether the index improves should say whether they compare with the originally published or the revised previous reading.

Forecasts versus the print

Private economists publish consensus estimates for the large manufacturers index before each release. That consensus is not a probability; our consensus estimates guide explains the gap. Surveys like this also react to the yen exchange rate, export demand and energy costs, which are easier to follow than many readers assume. Comparing with PMI readings helps, but the Tankan asks a different question and covers a different period.

Policy links

Traders often read the Tankan for hints about the next Bank of Japan decision, especially the firms' output price and inflation expectations. A strong reading does not settle a policy contract by itself. Keep the two markets separate and read each settlement source on its own terms.

Primary sources SoftCta readers open

• The Bank of Japan Tankan release page and its statistical tables.
• The published release calendar for the survey year.
• Explanatory notes on sample revisions and the definition of each diffusion index.

Reading the quote step by step

• Read the full title and rules, including the named settlement source and the time zone.
• Convert the Yes and No prices to implied probabilities and note the gap between them.
• Subtract fees and spread to see the effective price you would actually face.
• Write your own probability range and the evidence behind it, then compare.
• Check related and near-duplicate markets on other venues for consistency.

Closing SoftCta checklist

• Re-read the venue definition in your own words before reacting to a price.
• Convert prices with fee and spread awareness; verify live cents on the operator.
• Prefer primary settlement sources over secondary headlines and social summaries.
• Treat ChanceWire hubs, movers, and tools as orientation — not order entry.
• Confirm age, location, and product eligibility; SoftCta pages will not suggest location spoofing.
• If clarity is incomplete, watching is a complete SoftCta outcome — no pick-selling urgency required.

SoftCta habits

• Write your own probability range before checking the crowd price.
• Prefer dated primary sources over social summaries.
• Compare related markets when a single book looks extreme.
• Size curiosity with fees and depth in mind; substantial risk of loss.